2019 Atlantic hurricane season (Olo72)
The '2019 Atlantic hurricane season ' was a hyperactive and catastrophic hurricane season that, with a damage total of at least $252 billion (USD),being a event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially began on June 1, 2019, and end on November 30, 2019. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year, as shown by the formation of Tropical Storm Andrea on May 14, marking the fourth consecutive year in which a storm developed before the official start of the season. This season is also one of only seven years on record to feature multiple Category 5 hurricanes, and only the third after 2017 to feature two hurricanes making landfall at that intensity. The season also featured both the highest total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and the highest number of major hurricanes since 2005. All ten of the season's hurricanes occurred in a row, the greatest number of consecutive hurricanes in the satellite era.In addition, this season is the only season on record in which three hurricanes each had an ACE of over 40. Initial predictions for the season anticipated that an El Niño would develop, lowering storm activity. However, the predicted El Niño failed to develop, with La Niña.This led forecasters to upgrade their predicted totals, with some later anticipating that the season could be the most active since 2017. Since 2017, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had the option to issue advisories, and thus allow watches and warnings to be issued, on disturbances that are not yet tropical cyclones but have a high chance to become one, and are expected to bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions to landmasses within 48 hours. Such systems are termed "Potential Tropical Cyclones".The first storm to receive this designation was Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven. Seasonal forecasts Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale) will form during a season, and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of the University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and the dissipation of the 2014–16 El Niño event. On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of between 70 and 110 units. Pre-season outlooks The first forecast for the year was issued by TSR on December 13, 2018. They anticipated that the 2019 season would be a near-average season, with a prediction of 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. They also predicted an ACE index of around 100 units. On December 14, CSU released a qualitative discussion detailing five possible scenarios for the 2019 season, taking into account the state of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the possibility of El Niño developing during the season. TSR lowered their forecast numbers on April 5, 2019 to 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, based on recent trends favoring the development of El Niño. The next day, CSU released their prediction, also predicting a total of 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. On April 17, The Weather Company released their forecasts, calling for 2019 to be a near-average season, with a total of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The next day, on April 18, North Carolina State University released their prediction, also predicting a near-average season, with a total of 11–15 named storms, 4–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes. On May 20, The Weather Company issued an updated forecast, raising their numbers to 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes to account for Tropical Storm Andrea as well as the decreasing chance of El Niño forming during the season. On May 25, NOAA released their prediction, citing a 70% chance of an above average season due to "a weak or nonexistent El Niño", calling for 11–17 named storms, 5–10 hurricanes, and 2–4 major hurricanes. On May 26, TSR updated its prediction to around the same numbers as its December 2018 prediction, with only a minor change in the expected ACE index amount to 95 units. Mid-season outlooks CSU updated their forecast on June 1 to include 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, to include Tropical Storm Andrea.It was based on the current status of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which was showing signs of leaning towards a negative phase, favoring a warmer tropical Atlantic; and the chances of El Niño forming were significantly lower. However, they stressed on the uncertainty that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation could be in a warm-neutral phase or weak El Niño conditions by the peak of the season.On the same day, the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) released its forecast of a very slightly above-average season. It predicted 14 named storms, with a 70% chance that the number would be in the range between 10 and 16, and 8 hurricanes, with a 70% chance that the number would be in the range between 6 and 10. It also predicted an ACE index of 145, with a 70% chance that the index would be between 92 and 198.On July 4, TSR released their fourth forecast for the season, increasing their predicted numbers to 17 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, due to the fact that El Niño conditions would no longer develop by the peak of the season and the warming of sea-surface temperatures across the basin. Additionally, they predicted a revised ACE index of 120 units. During August 9, NOAA released their final outlook for the season, raising their predictions to 14–19 named storms, though retaining 5–9 hurricanes and 2–5 major hurricanes. They also stated that the season had the potential to be extremely active, possibly the most active since 2010. Seasonal Summary ImageSize = width:800 height:220 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/05/2019 till:30/11/2019 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/06/2019 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_≤39_mph_(≤62_km/h) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39–73_mph_(63–117_km/h) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74–95_mph_(118–153_km/h) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96–110_mph_(154–177_km/h) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111–129_mph_(178–208_km/h) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_130–156_mph_(209–251_km/h) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_≥157_mph_(≥252_km/h) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:10 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till From:15/05/2019 till:20/05/2019 color:TS text:Andrea (TS) From:03/06/2019 till:11/06/2019 color:TS text:Barry (TS) From:05/06/2019 till:07/06/2019 color:C2 text:Chantal (C2) From:24/06/2019 till:27/06/2019 color:C1 text:Dorian (C1) From:29/06/2019 till:02/07/2019 color:TD text:Five (TD) From:01/07/2019 till:14/07/2019 color:C4 text:Erin (C4) From:18/07/2019 till:20/07/2019 color:TS text:Fernan (TS) From:30/07/2019 till:08/08/2019 color:C2 text:Gabrielle (C2) Barset:Break From:30/07/2019 till:08/08/2019 color:C2 text:Gabrielle (C2) From:04/08/2019 till:05/08/2019 color:TD text:Nine (TD) From:10/08/2019 till:16/08/2019 color:C3 text:Humberto (C3) From:14/08/2019 till:05/09/2019 color:C1 text:Imelda (C1) From:29/08/2019 till:12/09/2019 color:C5 text:Jerry (C5) From:02/09/2019 till:07/09/2019 color:TS text:Karen (TS) From:09/09/2019 till:14/09/2019 color:TD text:Fourteen (TD) From:21/09/2019 till:27/09/2019 color:TS text:Lorenzo (TS) Barset:Break From:03/10/2019 till:05/10/2019 color:TS text:Melissa (SS) From:02/10/2019 till:08/10/2019 color:C3 text:Nestor (C3) From:12/10/2019 till:17/10/2019 color:C2 text:Olga (C2) From:24/10/2019 till:26/10/2019 color:TS text:Pablo (SS) From:01/11/2019 till:08/11/2019 color:C4 text:Rebekah (C4) From:12/11/2019 till:16/11/2019 color:TS text:Sebastien (TS) barset:Hurricane width:10 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/05/2019 till:01/06/2019 text:May from:01/06/2019 till:30/06/2019 text:June from:01/07/2019 till:31/07/2019 text:July from:01/08/2019 till:31/08/2019 text:August from:01/09/2019 till:30/09/2019 text:September from:01/10/2019 till:31/10/2019 text:October from:01/11/2019 till:30/11/2019 text:November TextData = pos:(570,30) text:"(From the" pos:(618,30) text:"Saffir–Simpson scale)" Systems Tropical Storm Andrea On May 13th, the NHC began tracking a tropical wave in the caribbean sea. Shortly after it made landfall Yucatán Peninsula. Immediately after exiting onto the ocean it began to organize due to low wind shear and above average water temperature. Due to the presence of organized convection, the NHC upgraded it to Tropical Depression One. 1 day later, it strengthened to Tropical Storm Andrea. It maintained tropical storm status for another 30 hours before weakening back to a tropical depression as it made landfall. 6 hours later the NHC issued it's final advisory as it had degenerated into a remnant low. Tropical Storm Barry On May 30th, the NHC began tracking an non-tropical low for organization. Initially, convection was very limited. However, on June 3, the NHC began issuing advisories on Subtropical Depression Two. Mid day on June 4th however, it degenerated back into an extratropical storm due to wind shear. Early on June 6th, it regenerated into Subtropical Storm Barry. Later that same day, due to warm sea surface temperatures and shear of about 10kts, it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry. It peaked at 60mph as it became a tropical storm. After that it began weakening, and it made land landfall early on June 7th as a 50mph tropical storm. Due to the Brown Ocean Effect, it maintained tropical storm strength until early on June 8th, when it weakened to a tropical depression. It maintained tropical cyclone status until early on June 9th, when it was downgraded to Subtropical Depression Barry. It continued as a subtropical depression until later on June 9th, when it was upgraded to Subtropical Storm Barry due to warm waters underneath it and low wind shear. Finally, early on June 10th, it degenerated back into an extratropical storm, and the NHC issued it's final advisory, though it's remnants were tracked until late on June 10th when it was adsorbed by a frontal system over Canada. Hurricane Chantal On May 28th, the NHC discussed the possibility of a tropical wave that was forecast to move of the African coast in a few days developing into a tropical depression. On June 1st the wave moved on to the Atlantic, showing few signs of organization. It moved due west at 10 knots for a few days until June 4th. Early that day the wave began to show signs of real organization. A day later, on June 5th, the storm had organized enough convection for the NHC to declare it Tropical Storm Chantal. It maintained tropical storm status until early on June 6th, when the NHC upgraded it to Hurricane Chantal. It continued to intensify, reaching peak intensity later that day. Early on June 7th, the storm made landfall in northern South America, where it caused minor damage. It quickly dissipated due to high amounts of shear and land interaction. Hurricane Dorian Early on June 22, the NHC began tracking a tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico. 3 days later, it was upgraded to Tropical Depression 3. Just 6 hours later it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Dorian. Twelve hours after it became a tropical depression, it was upgraded to Hurricane Dorian, just barely a hurricane. It then made landfall over Florida, causing minimal damage and leaving 8,000 without power. It then went back over water, but failed to power back up much. It then made a second landfall over Georgia and dissipated 6 hours later. It caused minor flooding in Georgia and increased thunderstorm activity in the state due to tropical moisture it brought inland. Tropical Depression Five On June 25th, the NHC began tracking a tropical wave that was about to move of the west coast of Africa. It moved mostly west at 5 kts for the next 4 days. Then, early on June 29th, the NHC upgraded it to Tropical Depression Five. It was originally expected to become a tropical storm, as favorable conditions appeared to be surrounding it. However, higher sheer than thought caused it to remain a tropical depression. Late on July 2nd, the storm encountered a burst of shear that caused it to degenerate into a remnant. The NHC issued it's final advisory when it went a remnant. Hurricane Erin Tropical Storm Fernand Hurricane Gabrielle Tropical Depression Nine On August 1st, the NHC began tracking a tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico for development. It slowly organized despite favorable environment. Early on August fourth, after days of little organization, the NHC upgraded it to Tropical Depression Nine. It was originally expected to make landfall as a tropical storm, but never reached that intensity. It became an open trough 1 day after forming and 12 hours after landfall. Hurricane Humberto Hurricane Imelda Hurricane Jerry Tropical Storm Karen Tropical Depression Fourteen Tropical Storm Lorenzo Subtropical Storm Melissa Hurricane Nestor Hurricane Olga Subtropical Storm Pablo Hurricane Rebekah Tropical Storm Sebastien Storm Names The following list of names was used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2019. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2025 season. This is the same list used in the 2013 season, with the exception of the name Imelda, which replaced Ingrid. Retirement Due of his massive destruction,the name Jerry was retired and replaced by Jean,in the 2024 season. Season effects This is a table of the storms and their effects in the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. This table includes the storm's names, duration, peak intensity, Areas affected (bold indicates made landfall in that region at least once), damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but are still storm-related. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave or a low. All of the damage figures are in 2019 USD (the listed damage figure is in millions). Category:Cyclones Category:Subtropical Cyclones Category:Hyperactive Hurricane Seasons Category:Olo72 Category:Hurricanes Category:Unusual seasons Category:Atlantic hurricane seasons Category:2019 Atlantic hurricane season Category:2019